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Electricity and production are limited, freight rates rise, leads to that aluminum shortage intensifies

2021/10/11 18:58:59 Click£º1562
 

Since the beginning of 2021, the shortage of power supply across the country, especially in Yunnan and Guangxi, has seriously affected the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply. The output reduction caused by power rationing was 1234000 tons. Recently, the impact of power rationing in Guangxi is still deepening, and the scale of electrolytic aluminum production reduction may be expanded. At the same time, the consumer side showed strong resilience, and the off-season inventory continued to go to a low level, so the aluminum price continued to rise.


In August, affected by the global epidemic, the global shipping cost of bauxite increased. According to media statistics, the freight from Guinea Cape ship to Shandong port is about US $30 / dry ton, an increase of US $3 / dry ton compared with the previous one; The freight of Indonesian Cape ships increased by US $3 / dry ton, and the price was US $15 / dry ton. The freight of Turkish Capesize ships increased by US $2 / dry ton, and the price was US $29 / dry ton. The freight of super handy ship in Malaysia is about US $19 / dry ton, that of Panamax in Australia is about US $19 / dry ton, and that of Panamax in Montenegro is about US $47 / ton.


The house leak happened to rain at night, and the ship was late and caught the first wind. On September 5, the coup in Guinea triggered concerns about bauxite supply, which undoubtedly exacerbated the rise in aluminum prices. With the increase of imported ore prices, the domestic ore market is more active than before. Guinea's bauxite export is very important for China and even the world. At present, there is no news to prove that the coup will have an impact on Guinea's Chinese enterprises and bauxite export. However, in this troubled autumn, the event provides a new upward momentum for the aluminum price, which has reached a new high since 2006, and the hot alumina market.


Pull one hair and move the whole body. Domestically, due to the continuous rise of aluminum price and the limited increase of raw material waste aluminum, the expectation is low. Concerns about the shortage of scrap aluminum supply will intensify in the short term in the future. Therefore, on September 9, Baotai enterprise ADC12 increased by 400 yuan / ton per day. Abroad, the progress of waste aluminum import is slow. It is reported that only Guangdong port has waste aluminum import. A large enterprise expects that about 20000 tons of waste aluminum stored in Hong Kong will arrive in January, so it is difficult to see a large number of imported waste aluminum entering China in the short term, especially in December.